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NEED HELP: possible context for osborn-tree6/ in FOI2009.zip

October 30th, 2010 (04:45 pm)
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Dear Internets,

Have any of you come across a graph before that looks like this?



This thumbnail appears in what seems to be a PowerPoint presentation [cached] appearing on www.unforum.org. (Unfortunately I can't view the presentation via the normal means -- I believe the file itself is broken. Any hints on how to quickly extract the rest of the presentation's contents are also appreciated.)

The graph's connection to FOI2009.zip is this: The thumbnail's flagged as having come from
f055@crua4.cru.uea.ac.uk, /cru/u2/f055/tree6
...that is, the directory /cru/u2/f055/tree6 on the machine crua4.cru.uea.ac.uk, where f055 is CRU researcher Tim Osborn's account number in UEA. And FOI2009.zip contains a directory named, well, FOIA/documents/osborn-tree6/ -- which means the PowerPoint presentation is a possible context for the material in FOIA/documents/osborn-tree6/.

Alas, the graph's not the same as any of the paleotemperature graphs in Mann et al. (2010).

Update 2010-10-31: I've ripped the full-size image from the presentation; click to see it in its original size. Also see comments below.

Comments

Posted by: ((Anonymous))
Posted at: October 31st, 2010 02:26 am (UTC)
www.unforum.org

unforum.org is a forum about the United Nations in Japanese language which was started by some Japanese UN employees.

I cannot read the PowerPoint file either. (OpenOffice 3.2 Japanese version says it encountered an I/O error.)

A link to the PowerPoint file is found in a summary (in Japanese) of a lecture "Climate Change and Poverty" on 5 Marc 2007 by Ms. Mihoko Kumamoto who works for the UN Development Program. http://www.unforum.org/lectures/34.html . The link belongs to the paragraph of "Outline of the issue of climate change", which refers to IPCC AR4 (actually its WG1 SPM which was released in Feb. 2007) and the Stern report affirmatively.

Kooiti Masuda

ReplyLink Thread
Posted by: ((Anonymous))
Posted at: October 31st, 2010 03:08 pm (UTC)
Re: www.unforum.org

Frank, the plots look exactly like the Jones Figure 2.21 in IPCC TAR, but with a couple of added plots (his showed a cooler MWP than MBH). It's possibly from a later paper?

First graphic: http://deepclimate.org/2009/12/11/mcintyre-provides-fodder-for-skeptics/

JB

ReplyLink Parent Thread
Posted by: Decoding SwiftHack (ijish)
Posted at: October 31st, 2010 06:26 pm (UTC)
Re: www.unforum.org

Thanks Masuda-san and JB!

I don't see anything in osborn-tree6/ mentioning the TAR, though there's a pl_multirecon_ipccar4.pro. Also, I wonder if I should try to get hold of an undamaged copy of the PowerPoint (and how).

Back to the graph itself: I got a tip from Phil Clarke over at Climate Progress pointing me to Plate 3 of

Briffa et al. 2001. Low-frequency temperature variations from a northern tree ring density network. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106 D3 (16-Feb-2001) pp. 2929--2941.
...and, I finally ripped out the full-size image from the PowerPoint (see update above). It does look very similar to the JGR graph, though it's a bit different -- there are no error bars, and the legend is changed.

ReplyLink Parent Thread
Posted by: ((Anonymous))
Posted at: October 31st, 2010 08:01 pm (UTC)
Re: www.unforum.org

Frank, if you want an undamaged version of the Powerpoint I'd suggest just getting in touch with whoever you think has a copy. They can only say no. Try calling or emailing CRU at UEA themselves.
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/

ReplyLink Parent Thread
Posted by: Decoding SwiftHack (ijish)
Posted at: November 1st, 2010 03:28 am (UTC)
Re: www.unforum.org

The particular graph's from CRU, but the rest of the presentation may not be.

ReplyLink Parent Thread
Posted by: ((Anonymous))
Posted at: October 31st, 2010 10:07 pm (UTC)
Re: www.unforum.org

Here's the PDF for Briffa et al 2001. You want page 10 which, unlike the graphic above, has error bars from 1400 AD.

Low-frequency temperature variations from a northern tree-ring density network. Briffa et al. (2010)
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/jgr2001/Briffa2001.pdf

As Osborn's one of the authors there's no surprise his name is in the file you talk about.

JB

ReplyLink Parent Thread
Posted by: ((Anonymous))
Posted at: November 1st, 2010 01:16 pm (UTC)
Re: www.unforum.org

The summary of lecture hints that Ms. Kumamoto may have quoted from the Stern Review.

The figure printed on Page 8 of The Stern Review (the official printed version: Stern, N., 2007: The Economics of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press) is very similar to the one in question, though not identical. (It included "Esper 02" as well). And the caption says "Source: IDAG 2005". In the reference list of its Chapter 1 (p. 22), there is an entry:

International ad hoc detection group (2005): 'Detecting and attributing eternal influences on the climate system: a review of recent advances', Journal of climate 18: 1291 - 1314.

ReplyLink Parent Thread
Posted by: ((Anonymous))
Posted at: November 1st, 2010 03:11 pm (UTC)
Re: www.unforum.org

The anonymous comment at 01:16 pm 01/11/2010 (UTC), about the Stern Review, is mine.

Kooiti Masuda

ReplyLink Parent Thread
Posted by: Decoding SwiftHack (ijish)
Posted at: November 1st, 2010 07:26 pm (UTC)
Re: www.unforum.org

Masuda-san:

Thanks again! (I think you mean "external" and not "eternal".) I just found a version of the Journal of Climate paper, though I don't know if this is the same as the final published version. This one is very similar to the diagram from the paper cited in the caption, namely

Keith R. Briffa and Timothy J. Osborn. 2002. Blowing hot and cold. Science 295(5563):2227--2228.

There's a pl_multirecon_blowhandc.pro in osborn-tree6/ in FOI2009.zip, so I guess that diagram probably came from there.

I've also sent an e-mail to the UN Forum folks about the damaged PowerPoint presentation.

ReplyLink Parent Thread
Posted by: ((Anonymous))
Posted at: November 4th, 2010 04:33 am (UTC)
Re: www.unforum.org

http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/4140/79120033.jpg

ReplyLink Parent Thread
Posted by: Decoding SwiftHack (ijish)
Posted at: November 4th, 2010 12:15 pm (UTC)
Re: www.unforum.org

Thanks for the tip!

I'm quite sure though that the CRU graph is a JPEG, not a PNG -- and the 2002:09:02 date occurs in a PNG header, i.e. the 2002:09:02 date belongs to a different diagram. Apparently the JPEG and PNG are stored noncontiguously in the PowerPoint, so their contents are interleaved at places.

But thanks for drawing my attention to the date and time -- the CRU graph itself seems to have been generated on 23 Aug 2006:

<xap:CreatorTool>Illustrator</xap:CreatorTool>
<xap:CreateDate>2006-08-23T18:25:02-04:00</xap:CreateDate>
<xap:ModifyDate>2006-08-23T22:25:04Z</xap:ModifyDate>
<xap:MetadataDate>2006-08-23T18:25:02-04:00</xap:MetadataDate>

ReplyLink Parent Thread
Posted by: ((Anonymous))
Posted at: November 1st, 2010 02:14 pm (UTC)
Decline not Hidden

Looks to me like this is an alternative way of adding Briffa to the other proxies, where the tree-ring fade out in the end is not removed for clarity sake. I'm pretty sure this version has appeared on CA somewhere during CRU HAck.

ReplyLink Thread
Posted by: Decoding SwiftHack (ijish)
Posted at: November 19th, 2010 08:52 pm (UTC)

Thanks all! I've just drawn a diagram about osborn-tree6/.

ReplyLink Thread
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